Calculates your actual tax rates, models three future policy scenarios weighted by your confidence, and recommends an optimal Roth / SEP-IRA (or Traditional IRA) split.
Select your view of future policy direction. The tool calculates each scenario's rate impact from real data. Use the reference panels below to inform your view.
What this means: A high debt/revenue ratio creates fiscal pressure to raise taxes. Historically, ratios above 5× have been followed by revenue-increasing policy within 10–15 years (e.g. post-WW2 tax policy, 1993 Clinton tax increase). The current ratio is near post-WW2 highs, suggesting meaningful upward pressure on future rates — which is why this tool applies a debt multiplier of 1.26× to the raise scenario and 0.68× to the cut scenario.
| Source | View | Key finding |
|---|---|---|
| CBO (Jan 2025) | ↑ Higher | Revenues rise from 17.5% → 19.2% of GDP by 2035 under current law (TCJA expiry) |
| Tax Policy Center (2024) | ↑ Higher | TCJA expiry raises effective rates on middle-income households ~$1,500–$2,500/yr on average |
| Peterson Foundation (2024) | ↑ Higher | Fiscal gap requires ~$400B/yr additional revenue; mix of spending cuts and tax increases expected |
| Goldman Sachs (2024) | ↔ Mixed | 60% probability of partial TCJA extension; 40% full expiry. Effective rates likely rise modestly regardless |
| Tax Foundation (2025) | ↔ Mixed | Full TCJA extension would cost ~$4.6T over 10 years; politically difficult without offsetting revenue |
Consensus lean: Rates are more likely to rise than fall over a 10+ year horizon. This tool adds a +0.5% per decade analyst bias to the raise scenario adjustment. At 30 years to retirement, this adds +1.5% to the raise scenario rate.
| Reform | Year | Direction | Eff. rate change (middle income) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy tax cuts | 1964 | Cut | −3.0% |
| Reagan ERTA | 1981 | Cut | −2.5% |
| Tax Reform Act | 1986 | Cut | −1.5% |
| Clinton OBRA | 1993 | Raise | +2.8% |
| Bush EGTRRA/JGTRRA | 2001/03 | Cut | −2.0% |
| ACA Medicare surtax | 2013 | Raise | +0.9% |
| TCJA | 2017 | Cut | −3.5% |
Political feasibility caps used in this tool: Maximum 3% effective rate change per 4-year reform cycle (based on historical max per cycle). Absolute ceiling: 10% for raises, 6% for cuts over any horizon. These caps prevent the model from predicting politically implausible outcomes even over very long horizons.
| Bracket | TCJA (current) | Pre-TCJA | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bracket 3 | 22% | 25% | −3pp |
| Bracket 4 | 24% | 28% | −4pp |
| Bracket 5 | 32% | 33% | −1pp |
| Bracket 6 | 35% | 35% | 0pp |
| Bracket 7 | 37% | 39.6% | −2.6pp |
How this tool uses TCJA: The raise scenario calculates your effective rate under the inflation-adjusted pre-TCJA brackets (2017 brackets × 1.27 CPI to 2025) with the pre-TCJA standard deduction. The difference from your current rate is the TCJA delta — the maximum impact if TCJA fully expires. This is then multiplied by a 70% realization factor (CBO estimates Congress rarely allows full expiry), scaled by your time horizon and debt pressure.
⚠ Status as of May 2025: Individual TCJA provisions were set to expire December 31, 2025. Congressional negotiations were ongoing. This tool may need updating once final legislation is confirmed.