Texas After-Tax Lottery Expected Net Value Comparison Terminal
RANKED BY LEAST-NEGATIVE EXPECTED NET VALUE PER $1
Every Texas lottery game is a losing bet on average. This terminal compares Powerball, Mega Millions, and Lotto Texas by their after-tax expected net value for each $1 spent — for a Texas resident with 0% state income tax and 37% federal tax on large prizes — and surfaces the one that loses the least. For entertainment purposes only.
01
Today’s Games
TX · 0% STATE · 37% FED
02
Net Value History & Projection
EV HISTORY & PROJECTION
SOLID = HISTORICAL · DASHED = PROJECTED, ASSUMES NO JACKPOT WINNER · THIN/FADED = +POWER PLAY / +EXTRA! TICKET · ▼ = JACKPOT WON · BOTTOM BAND = LEAST NEGATIVE
03
Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONS: Texas resident · 0% state income tax · 37% federal on prizes ≥$5K · 22% on $600–$4,999 · under $600 untaxed ·
MM non-jackpot prizes calculated at the official 3.0× avg multiplier · taxes averaged over each multiplier outcome ·
jackpot EV includes an estimated split-pot adjustment from projected ticket sales ·
projected EV assumes no jackpot winner, with jackpot growth estimated from historical sales ·
~ marks cash values estimated from the current cash/annuity ratio ·
all games have negative expected net value — for entertainment purposes only
EXPECTED NET VALUE / $1
PRIZE TIER BREAKDOWN — AFTER TAX (TX)
| TIER | PRIZE | AFTER TAX | ODDS | EV |
|---|
* jackpot EV uses an estimated split chance from projected ticket sales